2020년 핀셋규제에 따른 풍선효과로 전국 부동산 시장이 들썩이고, 코로나사태로 경기침체가 가속화하고, 초유의 제로 금리시대를 맞이한 상황에서 2030년까지 향후 10년간 부동산 시장을 전망한 책이다. 주택보급률이 100%를 넘어서면서 주택시장이 안정되었다고 자신해왔던 정부의 말을 비웃기라도 하듯 공급부족에 따른 투기문제가 지속되고 있어, 대량공급의 확대와 수요억제라는 두 가지 정책이 여전히 필요하다는 것을 강조하고 있다. 향후 10년간 부동산 트렌드는 주거복지, 고령화, 도시재생 이라는 흐름아래 투기와의 전쟁이 계속되면서 공급확대 정책과 수요억제 정책이라는 두 축으로 진행될 것이라고 예상하고 있다. 또한 3기 신도시, 재개발재건축, 수익형부동산 이라는 키워드를 중심으로 부동산 시장이 흘러 갈 것이며, 지역별로는 여전히 주택이 부족한 서울이 가장 관심을 받을 것이며, 지역별 호재가 있는 수도권과 광역시가 여전히 관심을 받을 것이라는 전망하고 있다. 향후 10년간 부동산 시장은 실수요자 위주로 재편될 것이며, 호재지역이나 경쟁력 있는 부동산상품을 중심으로 움직일 것이라고 분석하고, 투자지역은 서울과 수도권이 좋고, 투자 상품으로는 중소형아파트가 좋고, 투자입지는 도심 역세권을 추천하고 있다. 저금리, 저성장, 고령화 등으로 장기간 안정적으로 임대수익을 얻을 수 있는 수익형부동산 시대가 열릴 것이라고 보고 있으며, 또한 1인 가구의 증가에 따라 수익형부동산의 대표적인 상품인 주거용오피스텔, 다세대주택, 다가구주택, 도시형생활주택 등 소형주거상품에 투자하는 것이 안전할 것이라고 추천하고 있다. 국내 부동산 시장에 영향을 미칠 변수로는 정부의 정책방향과 강도, 각종 선거, 금리변화와 부동자금, 주택의 수급상황, 경기회복과 코로나사태 등이 있으며, 이들 변수들이 영향을 주고받으며 시장을 움직여 갈 것이라고 예상하였다. 국내 부동산 시장은 1997년 IMF와 2007년 국제금융위기 같은 돌발 상황만 생기지 않는다면 상승과 보합세를 반복하면서 우상향을 지속해 갈 것이지만, 코로나사태 같은 돌발변수가 장기화되어 내수가 장기간 침체되고, 세계 경제발 리스크가 몰려온다면 국내 부동산 시장을 직격탄을 맞게 될 것이라고 전망하였다. 책을 통해 향후 10년간 부동산 시장의 트렌드를 이해하고 투자의 방향을 잡는데 도움이 되며, 정부의 부동산 정책방향과 투자 상품에 대한 이해 및 투자지역을 선택하는데 도움이 되는 책이다.

저자 : 주호덕 현재 한국열린사이버대학교 부동산금융자산학과 특임교수와 (주)두바이컨설팅 이사 및 (주)미라클공영 대표로 활동 중이다. 경기대학교 대학원에서 정치학 박사학위를 취득하고, 부동산컨설턴트로 활동하고 있다. 사회공헌을 위해 민주평통자문위원, 로타리지구 봉사회원, 국제정치학회 회원 등 사회활동과 봉사활동도 활발히 하고 있다. 서울시정신문 논설위원으로 활동하고 있으며, 국제평화언론대상, 대한민국 사회발전 공헌대상, 글로벌 자랑스런 세계인대상, 보건복지부 장관상 등을 수상하였다. 부동산 컨설팅, 업무용 오피스, 빌딩 등의 분야에 이론과 실무를 겸비한 전문가이며, 빌딩 컨설팅, 투자, 거래 분야의 전문가로 활동하고, 있다. 블로그 주소 - https://blog.naver.com/333jhd 저자 : 최현일 현재 한국열린사이버대학교 부동산금융자산학과 교수로 재직 중이다. 경희대학교를 졸업하고, 일본 리츠메이칸대학교(立命館大學校)에서 도시정책 석사학위, 주택정책 박사학위를 취득하였다. 경희대학교, 단국대학교 경영대학원, 카돌릭대 행정대학원 등에서 강의하였다. 동탄신도시메타폴리스, 동탄신도시아파트, 광나루지역주택조합, 종로뜨레비앙 등 개발사업에 참가하였다. 네이버, 뉴스웨이, 브릿지경제 등에서 칼럼리스트로 활동하고 있으며, MBC, SBS, 한경TV 등의 방송에 출연하였다. 저서로는『1%금리시대, 수익형부동산으로 승부하라』,『큰 돈 없이 오르는 부동산을 사는 68가지 방법』,『돈 되는 부동산 정보를 찾아라』, 『신도시의 미래』등이 있다. 블로그 : http://blog.naver.com/hudosan

1장. 2020년 부동산 시장 1. 풍선효과로 전 국토가 투기판·················································10 2. 지역별 풍선효과·····································································12 3. 핀셋규제로 집값, 전세값 폭등 ················································24 2장. 주택시장 변화와 전망 1. 대한민국 주택시장의 특징······················································28 2. 아파트 ···················································································37 3. 다가구·다세대·연립주택··························································44 4. 타운하우스 ··············································································51 5. 주상복합아파트·······································································54 3장. 재개발과 재건축 1. 재개발과 재건축 비교·····························································64 2. 광나루 재건축 사례································································70 3. 일본의 재개발 사례································································73 4. 재건축초과이익환수제·····························································79 4장. 신도시 1. 신도시의 개념과 개발현황······················································88 2. 수도권 1기·2기 신도시··························································93 3. 3기 신도시 ·········································································114 4. 신도시의 미래 ······································································126 5장. 수익형부동산 1. 저금리시대, 수익형부동산에 투자하라 ································138 2. 주거용 수익형부동산 ····························································141 (1) 오피스텔········································································141 (2) 도시형생활주택 ····························································153 (3) 상가주택········································································165 3. 상업업무용 수익형부동산······················································170 (1) 상가 ···············································································170 (2) 지식산업센터··································································174 (3) 업무용 오피스 ································································180 6장. 2030 부동산 시장변화 1. 2020-2040 국토변화··························································190 (1) 제5차 국토종합계획(2020-2040) ··································190 (2) 광역교통 2030계획 ·······················································195 (3) 주택시장········································································204 2. 부동산 시장변화···································································209 (1) 부동산 시장의 변화 요인···············································209 (2) 인구감소와 가구구조 변화 ···········································213 (3) 고령화와 베이비붐세대··················································219 3. 부동산 트렌드변화································································220 (1) 주거복지시대의 본격화··················································220 (2) 문재인 정부 주거복지····················································222 (3) 고령화와 주택연금·························································238 (4) 도시재생········································································244 7장. 부동산 정책과 시장전망 1. 문재인 정부 부동산 정책 ···················································252 (1) 문재인 정부의 부동산 정책 ···········································252 (2) 문재인 정부 부동산 정책 성공할까? ······························264 2. 향후 부동산 시장 전망·························································272 (1) 주택의 대량공급 필요····················································272 (2) 재개발재건축 규제완화 필요··········································277 (3) 수익형부동산 시대를 대비하라 ·······································280 (4) 향후 부동산 전망 ···························································284