이 책은 세 가지 의미가 있다. 첫째，‘공동 기획, 개별 연구’ 결과이다. 기획 의도는 엘리트 변동과 국제관계 변화를 러시아 피봇 사례로 해서 살펴보자는 것이다. 이를 위해 한신대학교 유라시아연구소 구성원뿐만 아니라 기획 취지에 동감하고 또 실력을 갖춘 외부 필진을 섭외하였다. 이 방식은 가뜩이나 위축된 한국 인문사회 연구，더 나아가 집단연구 분야에서 고려하여 보급될만한 것이라고 사료된다. 둘째, 한신대학교 유라시아연구소에서 2021년 이후 역점을 두어 진행하고 있는 과학적인 한반도 정세예측모형 수립의 주요 내용인 ‘엘리트 변수 중심, 동태적 국제관계분석모델’이 완성되었다. 이 책은 그 내용과 첫 적용사례들을 주되게 담았다. 이 모델은 특히 국제질서 변화의 현시기 탈-탈냉전기의 국제관계 분석에 최적화되게 설계되었으며, 기존 관련 모델의 존재론 및 인식론적 한계를 보완했다는 점에서 그 차별성이 존재한다. 셋째, 이 책은 엘리트 변동과 국제관계 변화의 사례를 러시아를 중심으로 살펴보고 있다. 러시아를 중심으로 단방향 혹은 양방향에서 한국, 카자흐스탄, 북한, 중국, 일본과의 관계 변화를 분석했다는 점에서 그 시도의 독창성과 사례의 종합성이 존재한다. - 책을 펴내며 中

책을 펴내며 ··························································································· 7 제1장 대안적 국제관계 동학 분석틀: ‘엘리트 변수 중심, 동태적 국제관계 분석 모델’ 주장환 (한신대학교 동아시아통상학전공·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ················································································ 15 Ⅱ. 엘리트 변수 중심, 동태적 국제관계 변화 분석 모델 ········· 18 Ⅲ. 미중관계의 변화: 트럼프 1기와 바이든 행정부 시기 ········· 23 Ⅳ. 결론 ················································································ 34 제2장 문명과 권력의 재편: 병렬적 권역질서 속 한국과 러시아의 길 연담린 (한국국방연구원) Ⅰ. 서론 ················································································ 43 Ⅱ. 연구방법 ·········································································· 44 Ⅲ. 푸틴 집권기 엘리트와 한러관계 변화 ······························· 55 Ⅳ. 결론 ················································································ 72 제3장 러시아-카자흐스탄 관계에 대한 비판적 실재론적 이해 김시헌 (한국외국어대학교 국제지역대학원) Ⅰ. 서론 ··············································································· 79 Ⅱ. 비판적 실재론과 동태적 양국 관계 모델 ························· 82 Ⅲ. 러시아 의존적 양국 관계 ················································ 88 Ⅳ. 카자흐스탄의 러시아 의존 감축 시도 ······························ 98 Ⅴ. 결론 ············································································· 113 제4장 병렬적 권역질서와 북러 관계의 동아시아적 구현 연담린 (한국국방연구원) Ⅰ. 서론 ············································································· 133 Ⅱ. 이론적 배경과 분석 방법 ·············································· 134 Ⅲ. 러시아의 세계전략과 한반도 ········································· 146 Ⅳ. 북러관계 구조 변화와 국제정치적 함의 ························· 160 Ⅴ. 결론 및 정책 제언 ······················································· 169 제5장 중러관계와 정치엘리트: 마오쩌둥-흐루쇼프 관계 파탄이 시진핑-푸틴 시대에 주는 함의 김선재 (제주대학교 정치외교학과) Ⅰ. 서론 ·············································································· 177 Ⅱ. 신고전현실주의와 권위주의 외교정책 ······························ 180 Ⅲ. 마오쩌둥과 흐루쇼프의 관계 파탄과 중소분쟁 ················· 187 Ⅳ. 분석 및 함의 ································································· 197 제6장 일본의 정치엘리트 변동과 대(對)러시아 외교 김성조 (연세대학교 동아시아국제학부) Ⅰ. 서론 ·············································································· 207 Ⅱ. 이론적 논의 ··································································· 209 Ⅲ. 일본 대 러시아 외교정책의 배경 ···································· 214 Ⅳ. 사례연구 ········································································ 217 Ⅴ. 결론 ·············································································· 232